We The People
We, the people, live on this earth with the right to live, to exist, with liberty. No one can change that. And this was declared in 1949 in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. And well, do we really have our rights, our liberty, as indicated in the Declaration? I am not so sure.
Since the new Hong Kong’s National Security Law was enforced, I have been wondering how could it be enforced because the Law covers everyone, anywhere on earth. Anyone can now be convicted in the PRC Court by just saying that I want Hong Kong to be free from China’s rule if the place they committed this crime has an extradition agreement with China, right? This is very strange. Anyway, since the people there have to change the way they fight back the Government, we could probably spend a little less time there and see how the Thai people fight back their Government and the King at the very same moment.
After the pandemic started in early 2020, we could see how bad the Thai Government responded to the crisis, how they spent tax money on what deemed to be irrelevant to the relief of the crisis. Many people committed suicide, many people lost their jobs, many people committed crimes just to survive the days. And the Government announced that those who were affected by the COVID-19 crisis will receive a relief fund of ฿5,000 (Roughly S$224 or US$160, which is obviously not enough to survive a month) and they eventually spent a very long time using the AI and ML technologies to determine who should get the money first. And the AI turned out to be IFs and ELSEs simple programs with probably the
RAND() to pick the lucky ones to receive the money. And despite the project was under the Ministry of Finance, the e-service for the people to register for the relief package (https://www.เราไม่ทิ้งกัน.com) was registered with the non-governmental TLD .com with the EV certificate owned by Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited.
Angry, many people started their own relief packages, such as opening up Facebook pages as the marketplace for people to advertise their businesses online for free to make sure businesses can go on and people can still afford to buy food and pay the rent.
Among the marketplaces, there was one strange marketplace that did not aim to sell but to give something special, the insights. The page, called Royalist Marketplace, is administrated by Pavin Chachavalpongpun (@PavinKyoto), an exiled professor now living in Japan. With more than 600,000 followers, the page was featured by some newspapers and gained recognition very quickly in many places, especially Thailand and Germany. And with inputs from the other connected famous networks, like Somsak Jeamteerasakul (@somsakjeam) and Andrew MacGregor Marshall (@zenjournalist), more people started to realize how bad the Royal Family of the Kingdom of Thailand has been for the whole long time. And perhaps it’s the fate that the time was the month when the borders were closed but the King continued to fly in and out of 3 different countries and the Government of Bavaria specially allowed him to stay in the hotel, the residents of Bayern and the activist PixelHELPER (@PixelHELPER) started to protest, making the headlines in a number of papers in a few countries in Europe and the US. The most notable one is Bild (bild.de), a German tabloid. Eventually, this event triggered the investigation into the Inheritance Tax that the Thai-König has to pay the Bayerischen Staatsregierung. The sum was approximately €3B (US$3.4B, S$4.7B, ฿105B).
Some of the Thai people started to talk a lot more about (1) what if Thailand was colonized by the Western country in the past, (2) what if the King and his royal bloodline were eliminated (killed or exiled) during the Siamese Revolution of June 24, 1932, and (3) what if we fight today and revolutionize the nation again, making it anything but Kingdom.
There are two options left: (1) the Thai Federation (สหพันธรัฐไท) and (2) the Thai Republic or the Republic of Thailand (สาธารณรัฐไทย).
[ Side note: Although Thailand today is the Kingdom of Thailand, but I call it the Satanic State of Thailand. ]
Anyway, when we look at the feasibility of both options, I saw many problems that the Thai people need to join force and solve before the whole nation collapse. The major problems are finance and the center of power. I only found one source about the distribution of the tax collection across provinces of Thailand. The tax year was 2014. I asked people in the Marketplace and most of them said that information like this is very hard to find due to the failure in the taxonomical arrangement and how the websites were designed. The data was from TerraBKK (ref), which cited the data from the Revenue Department of Thailand (no link on the page, this department is comparable to IRAS of Singapore, IRS of the US, or the HMRC of the UK). And here is the chart of the sources of taxes from all the regions of Thailand and the population:
Tax Collected (%)
Population in the region (%)
We could see that the tax collected from the Capital Region (Bangkok and the other five surrounding provinces) is 71% but it only has 18% population while the three far-away regions combined could only reach 8% of all the taxes collected but the combined population reaches 65%. The Central Region, without the Eastern Seaboard Industrial Area, could probably barely survive, too. The Industrial Area could make up to ฿235B while the rest in within the same region could make only 85B baht. It feels like a tragedy.
Speaking about the Pro-Federation Team, if the country is split into approximately five states (e.g. the Bangkok Capital Region, Central Thailand, Isan (Northeast), Lanna (North), and the South), then Isan, Lanna, and the South could surely barely survive without external financial help packages from the Capital Government. The solution is to make sure that the Government can get everyone to register their jobs and force everyone to report their income and businesses so they can collect taxes correctly. ~~~ This is something the Revenue Department of Thailand fails to do today. Most people do not really report their income and there is no system that automates or verifies this at all.
When we think about the Republican Team, of course, the same problem could arise, how the collected taxes should be distributed. The Bangkok people would still say that they pay more taxes (and of course, this is true if the number I got from TerraBKK is true, and/or if the number they got from the Revenue Department is true), at 71%, they should also get what they paid. The Government should not help the other regions because they pay far fewer taxes (at around... 29%). But the people in those regions will say that they also deserve to get Government supports so they can develop themselves and get a better quality of life. This is clearly the long-debated topic. The Bangkokers who earn a lot of money and pay much more taxes would not want the people who pay only a tiny amount of taxes to get the same Government services and good infrastructure funded by the tax that comes mostly from them.
Hence, for both of the options, we still need to solve this very first problem. Without a proper solution, the new nation or the regions would bankrupt.
Apart from this, we will still have another big problem: the center of power.
We have no doubt if the country has become a federation, the center of power will be the big problem. How are we going to separate the states?
First, we could split the Capital, make it the Federal State. Surely Bangkok will remain the capital.
Second, we could split the North, make it Lanna State, with most likely Chiang Mai as the capital.
Third, we could split the Northeast, make it the Isan State, but the capital could be either Nakhon Ratchasima or Khon Kaen. They will have to compete.
Fourth, we could split the Central region, make it the Central Thailand State, and the capital could most likely be Chonburi. The problem is whether the people of the East Coast would like to join the Central Plain. If the region eventually split further into the East Coast and the Central Plain, then we have no idea where the new capital for the Central Plain will be located in. Probably Saraburi if we look at the amount of tax contribution, or Ayutthaya, the ancient capital.
Fifth, the South would be the last one. We could probably make it... Pattani State, or Southern State, or perhaps, we further separate them into Pattani State and Southern Thailand State. The Pattani State will consist of the majority of Malay-speaking Muslims residing in the Pattani, Jala, Menara, Setul areas. The names of the places could also be translated back to Malay (Narathiwat will eventually be renamed once again to the original Menara). And the capital of Pattani could be Pattani itself, or, somewhere else. Speaking of the border of these two states, it is also very hard to define. We have two big cities in the South as of now, Phuket and Song Khla.
And how about the Republican? Will the Republican Government continue to use Bangkok as the capital of the new nation? How to remove the image of the King from the older generations who still love the previous kings? And who will be the head of State that every other region will agree upon? Should it be people in Bangkok or people from somewhere else? This will be the problem that the Republicans will have to solve.
Anyway, my personal belief is:
Thailand will be either a Republic or a Federation in my lifetime.